Salary Brackets: Reviewing the Most Recent Contract Extensions

Pascal Siakam, Buddy Hield, and Jaylen Brown all signed extensions in this recent week, worth a combined $339 million. That’s a lot of money for three guys who are yet to really prove and solidify themselves as bonafide stars.

I use the phrase “bonafide stars” because I think it’s more than fair to say that when a guy earns this kind of money, he better be performing to a level that will have him involved in All-Star talks. Jaylen Brown will earn an average of $28.5 million with his new contract. That’s a shit-load of money for a player who has yet to really carve out a real position and role for himself on the Celtics offense. And it goes for Pascal and Buddy as well.

When teams make decisions like this, I think it’s important to realize that just because the players aren’t worth the money right now, they are projected to be a couple years into the deal. All three of the guys that are in this article fit that mold perfectly, with Siakam and Buddy being the most valuable right at this moment, but with a lot to still prove.

Something that may help us realize if these deals are good or bad is comparing. Let’s take players who play the same position and make/made similar money at this point in their career and see if things panned out. We’ll begin with Buddy Hield.

Buddy Hield is the starting shooting guard for the Sacramento Kings. At the age of 26, Hield has played 3 seasons in the NBA since being drafted 6th overall in the Pelicans in the 2016 NBA Draft. Hield had a career year last season, averaging 20-5-2.5 on 45-42-88 shooting across 82 games. He recently signed a 4 year, $94 million contract extension with the Kings.

According to FiveThirtyEight’s NBA Player Projections, Buddy Hield has:

• Average vitals (Height, Weight, Draft Position)
• Above-average scoring (TS%, FT%, USG%)
• Average tendencies (3pt. FQ, FT FQ)
• Average defense (REB%, BLK%, STL%, DEF +/-)

His player comparisons include:

• Glen Rice (1990-2004): 15 Seasons | 18.3 PPG, 4.4 REB, 2.1 AST |45-40-84 FG%
• Allan Houston (1994-2005): 12 Seasons | 17.3 PPG, 2.9 REB, 2.4 AST | 44-40-86 FG%
• Klay Thompson (2012-): 8 Seasons | 19.5 PPG, 3.8 REB, 2.4 AST | 45-41-84 FG%
• Peja Stojakovic (1999-2011): 16 Seasons | 17.0 PPG, 4.7 REB, 1.8 AST | 45-40-89 FG%

Hield’s projected 5-year market value is $91.4 million, which is just a touch lower than the four-year extension he just signed.

Based on these projections, Buddy Hield should continue on the player trajectory he’s on and end up a very serviceable guard. He’s already a top 20 shooter in the league and his salary of $23 million a year is very team-friendly and can be moved if need be. This deal looks like a good one for the Kings.

Pascal Siakam

Siakam is the new star of the Toronto Raptors after his running mate Kawhi Leonard jumped ship to the LA Clippers. At 25 years old, Siakam has exploded onto the scene winning the 2019 Most Improved Player award. Siakam BALLED alongside Kawhi Leonard, averaging 17-7-4 on 54-36-78 shooting on route to an NBA Championship. The Raptors signed him to a 4 year, $130 million contract. Let’s take a look at his comparisons and career projections.

Siakam vitals and comparisons according to FiveThirtyEight’s NBA Player Projections:

• Average Vitals (Height, Weight, Draft Positions)
• Above-average scoring (TS%, FT%, USG%)
• Average Tendencies (3pt. FQ, FT FQ)
• Average Passing (AST%, TO%)
• Above Average Defense (REB%, BLK%, STL%, DEF +/-)

Player Comparisons:

• Alex English (1977-1991): 16 Seasons | 21.5 PPG, 5.5 REB, 3.6 AST | 50-21-83 FG%
• George Gervin (1973-1986): 15 Seasons | 25.1 PPG, 5.3 REB, 2.6 AST | 50-27-84 FG%
• Sam Perkins (1985-2001): 18 Seasons | 11.9 PPG, 6.0 REB, 1.5 AST | 45-36-81 FG%
• Josh Howard (2004-2013): 11 Seasons | 14.3 PPG, 5.7 REB, 1.6 AST | 44-33-77 FG%

Siakam’s projected 5-year market value is $98.4 million, and it’s a no brainer to see that this contract is an overpayment. We’ll just have to see if it pans out.

That’s some pretty elite company if you ask me. Siakam is an excellent athlete with a tenacious motor and defensive mentality that makes him a matchup nightmare at all positions on the court, his contract IS an overpayment but it’s nothing to lose sleep over, Raptors fans.

 

Jaylen Brown

Jaylen Brown’s career has gotten off to a slow start. In his first three seasons, he has averaged 11.2 PPG, 4.2 REB, and 1.4 AST. His role and identity as a player haven’t been established and while he’s great defensively, his offensive consistency and control can be far and between when needed. The Celtics recently extended him on a 4 year, $115 million contracts.

Jaylen Brown Vitals and Comparisons:

• Above Average Vitals (Height, Weight, Draft Positions)
• Average scoring (TS%, FT%, USG%)
• Average Tendencies (3pt. FQ, FT FQ)
• Below Average Passing (AST%, TO%)
• Average Defense (REB%, BLK%, STL%, DEF +/-)

Player Comparisons

• Corey Maggette (2000-2013): 14 Seasons | 16.0 PPG, 4.9 REB, 2.1 AST | 45-32-82 FG%
• Harrison Barnes (2013-): 8 Seasons | 13.6 PPG, 4.7 REB, 1.5 AST | 44-37-79 FG%
• Tobias Harris (2012-): 8 Seasons | 15.4 PPG, 6.0 REB, 1.9 AST | 47-36-82 FG%
• Marvin Williams (2006-): 14 Seasons | 10.5 PPG, 5.3 REB, 1.3 AST | 44-36-80 FG%

Brown’s projected 5-year market value is $83.3 million, which means that yea, the Celtics overpaid big time for Jaylen Brown, and they still have to pay Jayson Tatum in a couple seasons. Hopefully, this deal pans out well, but judging by his first three seasons, his comparisons, and his projected market value, I’m not a fan of this contract.

It seems like players are demanding more and more out of their first big-time contract, and it’s hurting the league and hamstringing teams. Players AND executives alike need to recognize the value and not just commit to the “safe” bet when that bet might not even be that safe.