Pass to Toby

Tobias Harris declined an $80 million extension from the Clippers in lieu of a much, much bigger payday this summer. He’s betting on himself and so far, he’s winning.

Tobias Harris was a piece in the Blake Griffin-to-Detroit trade and has flourished as a starter in L.A. He is averaging 21-8-2 on 50% shooting from the field and 43% shooting from three. He has been a driving factor in the Clippers resurgence this season. He is really underrated in my opinion and made the right choice when he bet on himself last summer when he declined the extension from the Clippers. He can now make $188 million over 5 years with the Clippers, or $145 million over 4 years anywhere else. Do I think he will get that money? No, I don’t. I think he is an overlooked player in this stacked 2019 free-agency. And, I don’t think his stats justify that amount of money.

Before you click away and think I am an idiot, let me elaborate. Tobias Harris’s stats are not good enough, because he’s not used enough. Let me break it down.

Player	Statline	Efficiency %	FG%	FG3%	USG%
Tobias Harris	21-8-2	57	50	43	23
Danilo Gallinari	19-6-2	54	45	44	22
Lou Williams	18-2-5	47	42	36	32

Do you see what’s wrong here? I think it’s fairly obvious. Tobias Harris is being underused. He is arguably the best player on this Clippers team and he is only being used 23% of the time he’s on the court? Ridiculous. I’ll shed even more light on this.

Lou Williams: 3.6 3’s per game, 14 shots per game.

Gallinari: 5.5 3’s per game, 12 shots per game.

Harris: 4.7 3’s per game, 15 shots per game.

That’s right, the least efficient player out the top three scorers on this Clippers team is the one being used the most. Gallinari and Harris need to be used more. Both of them can get inside better than Lou Williams, both of them shoot better at all spots of the floor, and both of them are more efficient, and yet they are used 10% less than Williams. Williams is good, he’s a good player, but going off of stats, he shouldn’t be used as much as he is.

Close your eyes, imagine a world where Tobias Harris had a usage percentage of 30. That sounds pretty sweet, right? Well, it could be.

Let’s compare Tobias Harris to players similar to him, I’ll use Blake Griffin, Carmelo Anthony, and Rudy Gay. We must consider the fact that Harris is having his best season so we will use the listed players best statistical seasons. Shown below are Blake’s, Melo’s and Gay’s best seasons in the NBA.

Player	Season	Statline	Effic. %	USG %	FG%	FG3%	MPG
Blake Griffin	2018-19	26-8-5	54	30	48	36	36
Carmelo Anthony	2012-13	28-6-2	50	35	44	37	37
Rudy Gay	2014-15	21-5-3	49	27	45	35	35

I know! Just look at what Tobias Harris could be doing with more of the ball! What’s interesting is that Harris has a higher efficiency rating than all of these players, and shoots better from three than all of them. This could be because he has less of the ball, so his odds of successfully making the right play and hitting the shot are higher because he has limited chances, but what if it’s not? What if Tobias Harris can continue to have higher efficiency and shooting percentages than these three players when he has a high usage percentage? He could be in the upper echelon of the NBA, justifying a massive contract.

 Let’s see what it’s like when Toby gets more than 25% usage in a game.

Game	Result	Statline	Effic. %	USG %	FG %	FG3 %	MPG
Vs SAS	L: 125-87	17-5-2	49	30	35	25	28
Vs POR	L: 131-127	39-11-1	75	32	68	50	35
Vs DEN	W:132-111	21-7-3	56	27	46	60	26
Vs GSW	L: 129-127	32-9-2	71	26	57	85	37
Vs PHI	L: 119-113	21-6-0	50	30	46	25	24
Vs ORL	W: 106-96	28-9-2	50	31	47	50	35
Vs  CHA	W:128-109	23-6-3	61	25	50	57	32
Vs GSW	L: 112-94	28-9-2	47	31	38	37	35
Vs MIA	W: 111-99	31-7-6	68	29	63	50	39
Vs CHI	W:106-101	29-8-3	76	26	66	50	37

These are all the times in the last 22 games that Tobias Harris has had a usage percentage of 25% or more. His averages are:

Statline	Effic. %	USG %	FG %	FG3 %	MPG
26.9-7.7-2.4	60	28	51	48	30

This is a decent step up compared to his current stats, especially in the scoring category. Look at his stats on 28% usage compared to his stats right now:

Statline	Effic. %	USG %	FG %	FG3 %	MPG
21.1-8.0-2.5	57	23	50	43	34

Harris is clearly better when he has the ball more, and he’s actually able to hold up his shooting and efficiency even with more of the ball, a concern I expressed earlier in the article.

The Clippers have a real weapon here, with surprising size, the offensive abilities of Carmelo Anthony, and the speed and agility of Rudy Gay, he could be doing so much more than he is. In short, if the Clippers let Harris get more of the ball, I am positive he would make this team better than they already are.