The Aftermath

Kawhi Leonard is having the best season of his career, and he and the Toronto Raptors looked poised for a Eastern Conference Finals appearance, and maybe, just maybe, The Finals. But, if they fail to make it, does Kawhi leave? And if he does, what’s the next step for the Raptors?

Kawhi Leonard is regarded as one of the best players in the NBA, and arguably the best two-way player in the League. After suffering an ankle injury against the Warriors in Game 1 of the 2017 Western Conference Finals, which the Spurs looked set to win, Kawhi sat the rest of the series, which San Antonio lost, and then sat out the first 27 games of the 2017-18 season. He made his return on December 12, 2017 in a loss to the Dallas Mavericks, where he scored 13 points on 6/12 shooting in 16 minutes of action. In the next game, against Houston, Kawhi played 17 minutes and scored 12 points. From this point on, Kawhi alternates between rest and action.

He played in four more games before the New Year, with his minutes increasing in each game, eventually playing 27 minutes in his final game. He didn’t shoot well, and the Spurs had record of 2-2 with him in the lineup, compared to a 4-0 with Kawhi out of the lineup. Leonard plays three more games in 2018, scoring 25 vs the Knicks, 21 vs the Suns, and put 19 points, 8 boards, and 4 steals in his final game of the season, against the Nuggets.

The Spurs announced that Kawhi would rest indefinitely and return to rehabbing his right quad. Reports began to come up about a possible distance between Leonard and the Spurs organization. The reports were denied, but Kawhi spends three weeks getting his injury re-evaluated in New York, and then Gregg Popovich, the Spurs head coach said that he would “be surprised if (Kahwi) returned this season.” It was troubling because Kawhi had been cleared by the Spurs medical staff but was opting to stay out and get his injury evaluated by other doctors.

Rumours continued to erupt about Kawhi’s rift with the Spurs front office, and that even though he said he wants to end his career in San Antonio, his camp was trying to get him to realize the prospects of 2019 free agency.

Late March of 2018 rolled around and Manu Ginobli, a veteran SG for the Spurs at the time said that the team “can’t play with the expectation that Leonard will return this season” April came, and at this point, the Spurs front office, players and fans were expecting Leonard to be suiting up for a different team come October 2018, potential suitors were being named and mock trades were being thrown around. The Spurs made the playoffs in the 2017-18 season, and Kawhi was ruled out for the entire post-season, and did not show up for the first game of the post-season. There was an obvious rift, and it was very clear that Kawhi’s time as a Spur was finished.

We all know what happened next. 

Fast-forward to January 22, 2019, and Kawhi is having the best season he’s ever had, averaging 27-7-3, shooting 50% FG and 36% FG3 on 35 MPG. The Raptors sit 35-13 and Leonard is in contention for MVP. Obviously this begs the question, is Kawhi going to stay? And, what do the Raptors do if he doesn’t?

Here are the scenarios:

Best-Case:

Obviously the best outcome is Kawhi sticking around, signing long-term, and keeping the team a contender for hopefully the next three years at least. The Raptors would have another shot at the finals and the fans would have something to cheer about.

Worst Case:

The worst thing that can happen is Kawhi leaving, signing elsewhere in free-agency, effectively crushing the Raptors dreams of a title. This seems bad, but is it? If Kawhi leaves, the Raptors have three options. They can A, keep the team they have, and see how it plays out, which will probably be a top six team in the East, but nothing more. They can B, try and go get another star, like a Bradley Beal, and see if he and Lowry can make something happen. Finally, they can C, trade Kyle Lowry, and probably some other pieces as well, such as OG, maybe Jonas Valanciunas and some of their pricey bench pieces, like CJ Miles.

Kyle Lowry can get a decent return, but do not expect anything huge, as he will be 33 years old, and will be on the final year of his contract, but acquiring assets that can help as trade pieces later on, or acquiring a prospect or a pick, is better than being a middling team without a clear direction.

I truly believe they should go with option C. If Kawhi leaves, you need to have a good look at the true state of the team. Lowry is not getting any younger, but still has trade value. The Raptors do not have any really promising prospects. OG Anunoby has not made any real progress in his sophomore season and does not really fit or play any position really well. Pascal Siakam is very good, and he has had a huge 2019 season, but he is not someone you build around.

He is not Giannis, or Bradley Beal, or Porzingis. I truly believe if you want to be a contender, than you better be ruthless, cutthroat and emotionless during the process of a rebuild. The key to effective rebuilds is having a direct, and clear direction or goal.

Take a look at the Houston Astro’s. In 2013 they were the worst team in baseball and the laughing stock of the league, losing 111 of their 162 games that season. They were rebuilding, and they had a direct and clear goal of being a contender in 2017, and they did whatever they had to do to get thereThey traded fan-favorites, cut whoever was not needed, refused to sign big contracts, and did not sign players just because they would make the fans happy.

They were bad, and I mean really bad, but it worked out, their cutthroat mentality brought them some of the best prospects in baseball, and their financial strictness allowed them the money to sign the right players at the right time, and in 2017, they met their goal, and won the World Series.

Is Baseball the same as Basketball, no, but the management mentality needs to be the same when its time to make a difficult decision. If Kawhi departs this summer, I believe the Raptors need to get a head start on the rebuilding process. They cannot fall into the same trap the Orlando Magic, and Miami Heat have. They cannot be a middling team, they need to have a clear goal of getting back on top and need to make the tough decisions that will help them get there. For Toronto’s sake, I hope Kawhi stays, the fans have really acclimated to him and the Raptors are really good, but to all you Raptor fans, if Kawhi leaves this summer, keep your head up, its not going to be the end of the world.